Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
